@4cminews tweet: 2018 APR 03 How Big Is China’s Belt and Road?

This post comes from one of our syndications links which may have 3rd party Content and is subject to our Disclaimer on all content

2019 AUG 17 U.S. Amazon’s CEO Owns a Terror-Linked Paper (Alexa software) Egregious Privacy Violations

**2019 AUG 17 U.S. Amazon’s CEO Owns a Terror-Linked Paper (Alexa software) Egregious Privacy Violations** Hashtag: , , , , , , URL: https://www.jihadwatch.org/2019/08/amazons-ceo-owns-a-terror-linked-paper …

This post comes from one of our syndications links which may have 3rd party Content and is subject to our Disclaimer on all content

2019 AUG 06 India: Mosque caretaker admits burning a Qur’an and faking a “hate crime”

**2019 AUG 06 India: Mosque caretaker admits burning a Qur’an and faking a “hate crime”** HASHTAG: , , , https://www.jihadwatch.org/2019/08/india-mosque-caretaker-admits-burning-a-quran-and-faking-a-hate-crime …

This post comes from one of our syndications links which may have 3rd party Content and is subject to our Disclaimer on all content

2019 APR 10 Jihad Watch KASHMIR: Muslim leader calls for jihad, says “elections in both India and Pakistan is polytheistic, stay away”

POLITICAL Islam: Kashmir: Muslim leader calls for jihad, says “elections in both India and Pakistan is polytheistic, stay away” https://www.jihadwatch.org/2019/04/kashmir-muslim-leader-calls-for-jihad-says-elections-in-both-india-and-pakistan-is-polytheistic-stay-away …  HERE IS THE REASON ISLAM CAN NOT ASSIMILATE INTO A DEMOCRACY AND WHY IT SHOULD NEVER BE ALLOWED IN A DEMOCRATIC NATION

This post comes from one of our syndications links which may have 3rd party Content and is subject to our Disclaimer on all content

2018 APR 03 How Big Is China’s Belt and Road?

Photo: Mike Clarke/AFP/Getty Images

The big numbers being floated for President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy effort, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), do not add up. Popular estimates for Chinese investment under the BRI range from $1 trillion to $8 trillion, hardly a rounding error. Without a clearer sense of the BRI’s scale, it is difficult to assess its economic and strategic implications. A closer look reveals the highest figures are inflated, scoring political points for Beijing in the short term but also creating unrealistic expectations.

Mapping China’s Vision

Mapping the BRI is part art, part science. It is a moving target, loosely defined and ever expanding. It includes Chinese investment in roads, ports, and other hard infrastructure. It includes trade deals, transportation agreements, and other “soft” infrastructure efforts. If you travelled to China since September 2013, congratulations, you may have participated in the BRI. It includes tourism and other “people-to-people” ties such as education and cultural exchanges.

The BRI is not constrained by geography or even gravity. When announced in 2013, it had two major components: an overland “belt” across the Eurasian supercontinent and a maritime “road” across the Indian ocean and up to Europe via the Suez Canal. Since its announcement in 2013, this vision has stretched into the Arctic, cyberspace, and outer space. Countries have signed onto the BRI in places as far-flung from China as Central America.

China's Belt Road Vision

PAKISTAN, SOUTH KOREA, INDIA

But participation in the BRI is less meaningful than it might seem. Roughly 70 countries have joined, but their levels of Chinese investment vary widely. Pakistan has attracted some $60 billion for projects. South Korea signed up, but as of last year, it had no BRI projects. Despite being among the most vocal critics of the BRI, India has still attracted some Chinese investment. An industrial park in Gurajat, for example, would be easily branded as a BRI project elsewhere. In sum, participation in the BRI is not a prerequisite for doing related business with China, nor is participation a guarantee of more business.

There is no firm timeline for the BRI. Some projects and activities that started before the BRI was announced have been rebranded and are often counted along with more recent projects. Until recently, some experts expected the BRI would be phased out when Xi left office in 2022. But having done away with presidential term limits, Xi could stick around for longer, as could his signature foreign policy vision. Theoretically, the BRI could stretch to 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China and Xi’s target date for establishing China as “fully developed, rich, and powerful.”

Different assumptions for these basic questions—what, where, who, and when—naturally lead to different estimates for the BRI’s size. Stretch any dimension, and the numbers start to rise, especially if looking into the future. But look at what has happened to date, and a more modest picture begins to emerge, including risks that could eventually deflate the BRI’s grand ambitions.

TWO KEY QUALIFIERS: INFRASTRUCTURE and PROMISES

Consider the most common estimate: $1 trillion. This figure is usually tied to promised infrastructure investment.

Note the two key qualifiers: infrastructure and promised. Infrastructure, which the CSIS Reconnecting Asia Project tracks, is a major component of the BRI, but as noted earlier, not the entirety of it. There is a natural lag between infrastructure pledges and actual investment, given the complexity of the project planning and construction process. But China, like other countries, also tends to promise more than it delivers.

The best available data suggest that China’s $1 trillion promise has not been met, and at current trends, will not be met for several years. The Reconnecting Asia Project is tracking roughly $90 billion of Chinese funding for transportation projects (specifically, railways, roads, ports, and dry ports) during 2014–2017. Later this year, we’ll add power plants, which along with other energy projects, play a significant part in BRI activities. For example, roughly half of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’s investments are energy related.

$340 BILLION vs. $8 TRILLION

The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and Heritage Chinese Global Investment Tracker, which tracks Chinese construction and investment across all sectors, puts the total at roughly $340 billion during 2014–2017. According to AEI’s Cecilia Joy-Perez and Derek Scissors, current trends suggest it would take six to seven years for the BRI to reach the $1 trillion mark. Given limited private-sector participation, they reason that state-driven activities could push the BRI across the $2 trillion threshold in the 2030s.

So how did BRI estimates balloon to $8 trillion?

Here’s a theory: they conflate Asia’s massive infrastructure needs with comparatively modest Chinese investments.

Many references to the $8 trillion figure lead back to a 2016 commentary in the Hong Kong Economic Journal, which noted, “The financial experts at the State Council have estimated that ‘One Belt, One Road’ would cost as much as US$8 trillion if it was fully implemented following Xi’s orders.” That State Council estimate has remained elusive. But a similar number was in circulation around the same time. In 2009, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimated that developing Asia needed $8 trillion of infrastructure investment during 2010–2020.

If there was a State Council estimate, its author may have adopted the ADB’s figure for several reasons. The BRI has only been defined in broad strokes, making reliable estimates difficult if not impossible. And why create a new estimate from scratch, when you could borrow an existing one? Additionally, the BRI has evolved since its announcement. A vision document for maritime cooperation under the BRI was not issued until June 2017. Even the name has changed, having started as the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR).

Size BRI’s Misperceptions Carry Practical Implications

Misperceptions about the BRI’s size carry practical implications. For now, Chinese officials can enjoy watching the estimates rise and could even reap some political benefits. They have conjured up a massive carrot that has caught the world’s attention. Some developing countries are “linking” their development plans with the BRI. International companies have assembled teams to source BRI deals. All of these activities reflect a willingness to organize, at least in appearance, around China’s vision.

But China also faces downsides to unrealistic BRI estimates. The BRI’s size excites some observers but worries others. As the effort inflates, so do concerns about its impact on debt levels, the environment, and even regional security. For China, perhaps the biggest risk is unmet expectations. With the world watching, China now faces pressure to deliver on its promises. Even if Chinese officials did not promise trillions of dollars in investment, they have done little to correct these misperceptions.

A little modesty about the BRI’s scale could go a long way. For supporters, it could help reset expectations. For skeptics, it could temper fears about the BRI’s risks. The benefits are obvious, but they require bringing Xi’s grand vision down to earth. That is a price few of his advisers will be eager to pay.


JONATHAN HILLMAN: is director of the Reconnecting Asia Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Find him on Twitter @HillmanJE. CSIS: Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

Original Source: Date-stamped: 2018 APR 03 | Author: Jonathan E. Hillman; Senior Fellow, Economics Program, and Director, Reconnecting Asia Project | Article Title: How Big Is China’s Belt and Road? | Article Link: csis.org

Hashtags: #4cminewswire, #BRI, #XiJinping, #China, #EurasianSupercontinent, #MaritimeRoad, #Pakistan, #SouthKorea, #India, #4cminews, #4CM2018APR03

Tags: 4cminewswire, BRI, Xi Jinping, China, Eurasian Supercontinent, Maritime Road, Pakistan, South Korea, India, 4cminews, #4CM2018APR03


2019 NOV 12 The US is Scrambling To Invest More in Asia To Counter China’s ‘Belt And Road’ Mega-Project.

Here’s what China’s plan to connect the world through infrastructure is like. 

  Map showing the projects subsumed under China’s Belt and Road Initiative as of December 2015. Reuters

The Belt and Road Initiative is one of China’s most ambitious projects.

It involves partnering with dozens of countries around the world through trade and infrastructure
…..projects, such as shipping lanes, railroads, and airports.

Supporters say it’s a way for China to invest in emerging markets and strengthen ties. Critics say
…..this is a way for China to use money to leverage political gains and increase its global power.

The US is now trying to create a viable alternative to the project by increasing investment in Asia.
….. Whether that will work, though, is not clear.

Learn more about the mega-project here.

ASIA, AFRICA, EUROPE, and OCEANIA

China is undertaking what it considers the largest project of the century — linking itself with more than 100 countries across Asia, Africa, Europe, and Oceania through trade.

The main focuses of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — also known as “One Belt, One Road” — are in infrastructure, transportation, and energy. The initiative was first announced in 2013, and is seen to be President Xi Jinping’s pet project.

Most BRI deals involve China lending vast amounts of money to other countries to build new railroads, shipping lanes, and other ventures in those countries. Investment from China alone in the project is estimated to be between $1 trillion and $8 trillion.

Proponents of the BRI say it’s a way for China to invest in emerging markets and strengthen its ties with them. However, the inner workings of the BRI are shrouded in secrecy, and some projects have already been abandoned due to host countries being unable to pay back their loans.

Critics also say that by creating these loans, China is engaging in debt-trap diplomacy — a strategy of extracting political concessions out of a country that owes it money.Critics also say that by creating these loans, China is engaging in debt-trap diplomacy — a strategy of extracting political concessions out of a country that owes it money.Critics also say that by creating these loans, China is engaging in debt-trap diplomacy — a strategy of extracting political concessions out of a country that owes it money.

Critics also say that by creating these loans, China is engaging in debt-trap diplomacy — a strategy of extracting political concessions out of a country that owes it money.

The Belt and Road Initiative is a massive trade and infrastructure project that aims to link China to dozens of economies across Asia, Europe, Africa, and Oceania.

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at a BRI forum in Beijing, China, in May 2017. Nicolas Asfouri/Pool/Reuters

IT CONSISTS OF TWO PARTS: the “belt,” which recreates an old Silk Road land route, and the “road,” which is not actually a road, but a route through various oceans.

The Silk Road was an ancient land route across Europe and Asia that connected traders and travellers from regions like the China, Persia, and the Roman Empire.

Merchants used to transport silk and other commodities by camel or horse along those roads.

As of November 2019, 138 other countries are part of the project, according to China. They include New Zealand, Russia, Italy, and even Syria.


MoU’s

SECRECY

Below Left: BRI partnerships typically come in the form of joint memoranda of understanding to support future projects. But these contracts are typically shrouded in secrecy, so it’s hard to understand how they work.

Below Right: China has invested between $1 trillion and $8 trillion in projects along the Belt and Road, mainly in infrastructure, transport, and energy.

Chinese President Xi Jinping votes at Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. Reuters/Jason Lee

A train carrying containers from London arrives in Yiwu, China, in April 2017. The sign at the front of the train reads: "First Sino-Euro Freight Train (London Yiwu)." Thomas Peter/Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping votes at Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China.

These include gas pipelines in Pakistan; a port in Kazakhstan; and a rail route linking Yiwu, China, to the United Kingdom. Source: Center for Strategic and International StudiesSouth China Morning Post


Below Left: This 2017 photo shows a freight train directly running from Kouvola, Finland, to Xi’an, China. The trip takes 17 days, and is supposed to be faster than sea travel and cheaper than air.

Below Right: Here are workers building a natural gas pipeline linking China and Russia — one of the landmark BRI projects between the two countries.

Source: New China TV

Russian President Vladimir Putin — whom China’s President Xi calls his “best and bosom friend” — has propped up China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the past.


Below Left: China’s ambitions have even reached the Arctic, with plans to build a “Polar Silk Road” with infrastructure projects and shipping routes between the Arctic and Asia.

Below Right: Critics have warned that the building infrastructure projects under the BRI can cause environmental damage and displace people.

Smog in Beijing. REUTERS/China Daily

China first announced plans to build the Polar Silk Road in January 2018.

Smog in Beijing


China — which has led action on climate-change policies in recent years— has pledged to build environmentally sustainable BRI projects in the past, but has not given much detail on how it would do so, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said.

Activists and locals have spoken out about the potential environmental damage of various BRI projects.

In 2018, activists in Kenya managed to halt, via judicial order, the construction of a Chinese-financed coal plant because it would destroy the environment and human health.

Environmental groups in Indonesia have also warned that the building of a $1.6 billion dam on Sumatra island could wipe out a species of orangutan, the Financial Times reported.

A villager in Bom Or, Laos, told the Financial Times that Laotian and Chinese officials had visited more than 30 households asking them to make way for a building, without offering them financial compensation or other housing.


Below Left: Regardless, China is immensely proud of the BRI — it’s considered President Xi Jinping’s pet project. Experts say that you can just cite it to get government funding for projects.

Below Right: China is so keen to plug the project that state media outlets have made multiple music videos to promote it.

New China TV/YouTube

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a meeting at the United Nations European headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, January 18, 2017.

New China TV/YouTubeOne video published by China Daily, ostensibly aimed at Gen-Z, shows children “from participating nations of The Belt and Road” singing these lyrics: “The world’s we’re dreaming of starts with you and me / The future’s coming now, the Belt and Road is how.” | Source: New China TV


“If you package something and say it’s Belt and Road-related, you have a much better chance of getting money from the Chinese government,” Stanley Rosen, a China expert and political-science professor at the University of Southern California told Business Insider earlier this year.

Similarly, Charles Parton, a former EU diplomat in China, told the Financial Times in 2017: “If you want to get projects or programmes approved, you say it’s OBOR [One Belt, One Road], so everything becomes OBOR.”


Below Left: In March 2019 China claimed one of its biggest victories for the BRI by signing a memorandum of understanding with Italy, the 8th-biggest economy in the world.

Below Right: The US isn’t a part of BRI, but recognizes and deems it a threat. In November 2019, President Donald Trump’s administration announced it will invest and trade more in Asia to counter China’s economic power in the region.

Chinese and US delegations led by Xi and President Donald Trump at a working dinner after the G20 leaders summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in December 2018. Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

Xi and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte shake hands after signing trade agreements in Rome, Italy, on March 23, 2019.

Chinese and US delegations led by Xi and President Donald Trump at a working dinner after the G20 leaders summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in December 2018.


The two countries’ MOU, reportedly to support a joint infrastructure project, is non-binding — meaning there will be no legal ramifications for Italy or China if either withdraws from the agreement.

The exact details of what the memorandum aims to achieve are also unclear, further shrouding the BRI in secrecy.

The Trump administration in November launched the “Blue Dot Network,” a US-led public-private initiative to increase “financially sustainable infrastructure development” in Asia.

The organization wants to “promote market-driven, transparent, and financially sustainable infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world,” it said in a statement.

It appears to be directly targeting countries concerned about the BRI’s opacity.


Below Left: In 2016, China established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, an regional development bank to fund infrastructure — like an Asian version of the IMF. The UK, Germany, and France all joined despite the Obama administration warning its allies not to.

Below Right: Though China typically stays out of other countries’ politics, the BRI has given it reasons to get involved in some of them. When Turkey invaded northeastern Syria — a BRI partner nation — in October, China told Turkey to stop (and was ignored).

US President Barack Obama was not pleased when US allies all joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank despite his discouraging them from it. Mark Wilson/Getty Images

US President Barack Obama was not pleased when US allies all joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank despite his discouraging them from it. Source: Asian Infrastructure Investment BankBusiness Insider

Children sit by their damaged home in Barisha, Syria, following a US raid on ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in late October 2019. Source: Chinese governmentSouth China Morning Post


Below Left: The project has also amplified feuds between other countries. India is suspicious of the BRI because of Beijing’s plans to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Below Right: China’s backing of Pakistan-based infrastructure projects has also appeared to encourage it to support Beijing in other political issues. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has routinely ignored criticism of China’s abuse against its Muslim minority.

Imran Khan at his house in the Bani Gala hills, on the outskirts of Islamabad, Pakistan July 29, 2017. Caren Firouz/Reuters

Pakistan’s Gwadar port, which is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, in October 2017. Drazen Jorgic/Reuters

Imran Khan at his house in the Bani Gala hills, on the outskirts of Islamabad, Pakistan July 29, 2017. Caren Firouz/Reuters


CHINA-INDIA-PAKISTAN:

Projects along the CPEC include a coal-fired power plant, schools, and solar energy facilities, according to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency.

Tensions between India and Pakistan, meanwhile, reached a height this year when India claimed the disputed region of Kashmir as its own federally-administered territory.

Khan has repeatedly claimed not to know anything about China’s oppression of the Uighurs, a mostly-Muslim ethnic minority in its west.

China-Pakistan: Critics told Business Insider earlier this year that through the BRI, China had bought Pakistan’s silence.


It’s an example of what critics call Chinese “debt-trap diplomacy” — the strategy of extracting political concessions from a country that owes money. Another example of this can be seen in BRI countries shunning Taiwan.

Below Left: Taiwan

Below Right: Cambodia

Construction for an airport in Botum Sakor, Cambodia, developed by China's Union Development Group, in May 2018. REUTERS/Samrang Pring

A woman in front of Taiwan’s flag.

Construction for an airport in Botum Sakor, Cambodia, developed by China’s Union Development Group, in May 2018.


TAIWAN: has been self-governing for decades, but Beijing continues to call it a Chinese territory. Tensions between the pair have ramped up in recent years because the island nation’s incumbent president is particularly critical of China.

A handful of countries, which are also BRI partners, have formally severed ties with Taiwan in recent months, leaving the island nation with just 15 allies left globally — all of whom are relatively impotent on the world stage.

Taiwan’s allies include the Pacific island nations of Nauru and Tuvalu, and Eswatini, a southern African nation of 1.4 million people

Many of those countries have also restored or improved ties to China after cutting off Taiwan.

PACIFIC: Not everyone agrees with that characterization, though. An Australian think tank found that China’s actions in the Pacific do not, at this point, show any sort of debt-trap diplomacy.

“The evidence suggests China has not been engaged in problematic debt practices in the Pacific as to justify accusations of debt trap diplomacy, at least not to date,” the Lowy Institute said in October 2019, according to The Guardian.

The think tank did warn, however, that the “sheer scale of Chinese lending and the lack of strong institutional mechanisms to protect the debt sustainability of borrowing” could still bring risks for the borrowing nations.


Below Left: One thing is clear: China has poured a lot of money and effort into the BRI, and is unlikely to stop. The US — the only world power strong enough to take on China — will have to step up if it wants to be taken as a serious alternative in Asia.

Below Right: This map shows a trillion-dollar reason why China is oppressing more than a million Muslims (The Uighurs, a mostly-Muslim ethnic minority in Xinjiang, western China, are living in one of the most heavily-policed and oppressive states in the world. This map helps explain why.)

Trump and Xi Jinping in Osaka, Japan, in June 2019.

BI Graphics: A map showing some Belt and Road Initiative land routes that run through China’s Xinjiang.  businessinsider.com.au


Original Source: Date-stamped: 2019 NOV 12 | Time-stamped: 2:42 AM | Author: Alexandra Ma | Article Title: The US is Scrambling To Invest More in Asia To Counter China's 'Belt And Road' Mega-Project. |  Article Link: businessinsider.com

Hashtags: #4cminewswire, #BRI, #OBOR, #Europe, #Asia,  #China, #XiJinping, #Xian, #Persia, #RomanEmpire, #Kouvola, #Finland, #Russia, #VladimirPutin, #PolarSilkRoad, #StanleyRosen, #CharlesParton, #Italy, #GiuseppeConte, #UnitedStates, #DonaldTrump, #BlueDotNetwork, #IMF, #Turkey, #ChinaPakistanEconomicCorridor, #CPEC, #Imran #Khan, #India, #Kashmir, #Uighurs, #Taiwan, #BotumSakor, #Cambodia, #4cminews, #4CMiTV, #4CM2019NOV12,

Tags: 4cminewswire, BRI, OBOR, Europe, Asia,  China, Xi Jinping, Xi’an, Persia, Roman Empire, Kouvola, Finland, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Polar Silk Road, Stanley Rosen, Charles Parton, Italy, Giuseppe Conte, United States, Donald Trump, Blue Dot Network, IMF, Turkey, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Imran Khan, India, Kashmir, Uighurs, Taiwan, Botum Sakor, Cambodia, 4cminews, 4CMiTV, #4CM2019NOV12,