EDITORIAL: 2018 SEP 03 OECD: **CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE IN THE GLOBAL TRADE, INVESTMENT AND FINANCE LANDSCAPE** #4cminewswire, #4cminews, #BRI, #China, #Mongolia, #Russia, #Eurasia, #Asia, #Pakistan, #Indian, #Indochina, #4CM2018SEP03, READ HERE: https://4cminews.com/?p=51835 pic.twitter.com/MqXaLMEvGx
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THE PROJECT IS OFTEN DESCRIBED: as a 21st century silk road, made up of a “belt” of overland corridors and a maritime “road” of shipping lanes.
Beijing’s multibillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been called a Chinese Marshall Plan, a state-backed campaign for global dominance, a stimulus package for a slowing economy, and a massive marketing campaign for something that was already happening – Chinese investment around the world.
Over the five years since President Xi Jinping announced his grand plan to connect Asia, Africa and Europe, the initiative has morphed into a broad catchphrase to describe almost all aspects of Chinese engagement abroad.
Belt and Road, or yi dai yi lu, is a “21st century silk road,” confusingly made up of a “belt” of overland corridors and a maritime “road” of shipping lanes.
From South-east Asia to Eastern Europe and Africa, Belt and Road includes 71 countries that account for half the world’s population and a quarter of global GDP.
Everything from a Trump-affiliated theme park in Indonesia to a jazz camp in Chongqing have been branded Belt and Road. Countries from Panama to Madagascar, South Africa to New Zealand, have officially pledged support.
HOW MUCH MONEY IS BEING SPENT?
The Belt and Road Initiative is expected to cost more than $1tn[1]SEE URL: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/china-belt-and-road (£760bn), although there are differing estimates as to how much money has been spent to date. According to one analysis, China has invested more than $210bn, the majority in Asia.
But China’s efforts abroad don’t stop there. Belt and Road also means that Chinese firms are engaging in construction work across the globe on an unparalleled scale.
GRAPH Total of Contracts Awarded to CCP:
To date, Chinese companies have secured more than $340bn in construction contracts along the Belt and Road.
However, China’s dominance in the construction sector comes at the expense of local contractors in partner countries.
The vast sums raked in by Chinese firms are at odds with the official rhetoric that Belt and Road is open to global participation and suggest that the initiative is also motivated by factors other than trade, such as China’s need to combat excess capacity at home.
WHAT ARE THE RISKS FOR COUNTRIES INVOLVED?
More recently, governments from Malaysia to Pakistan are starting to rethink the costs of these projects. Sri Lanka, where the government leased a port to a Chinese company for 99 years after struggling to make repayments, is a cautionary tale.
Earlier this year, the Center for Global Development found eight more Belt and Road countries at serious risk of not being able to repay their loans.
In eight countries, Belt and Road loans could increase the risk of debt distress …
GRAPH 2 Eight Countries, Belt and Road Loans:
The affected nations – Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, the Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, Pakistan and Tajikistan – are among the poorest in their respective regions and will owe more than half of all their foreign debt to China.
Critics worry China could use “debt-trap diplomacy”[2]SEE URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/warning-sounded-over-chinas-debtbook-diplomacy to extract strategic concessions – such as over territorial disputes in the South China Sea or silence on human rights violations. In 2011, China wrote off an undisclosed debt owed by Tajikistan in exchange for 1,158 sq km (447 sq miles) of disputed territory.
“There are some extreme cases where China lends into very high risk environments, and it would seem that the motivation is something different. In these situations the leverage China has as lender is used for purposes unrelated to the original loan,” said Scott Morris, one of the authors of the Washington Centre for Global Development report.
WHY IS THE INITIATIVE SPARKING GLOBAL CONCERN?
As Belt and Road expands in scope so do concerns it is a form of economic imperialism that gives China too much leverage over other countries, often those that are smaller and poorer.
Jane Golley, an associate professor at Australian National University, describes it as an attempt to win friends and influence people. “They’ve presented this very grand initiative which has frightened people,” says Golley. “Rather than using their economic power to make friends, they’ve drummed up more fear that it will be about influence.”
According to Shan Wenhua, a professor at Jiaotong University in Xi’an, Xi’s signature foreign policy is “the first major attempt by the Chinese government to take a proactive approach toward international cooperation … to take responsibility.”
Some worry expanded Chinese commercial presence around the world will eventually lead to expanded military presence. Last year, China established its first overseas military base in Djibouti. Analysts say almost all the ports and other transport infrastructure being built can be dual-use for commercial and military purposes.
“If it can carry goods, it can carry troops,” says Jonathan Hillman, director of the Reconnecting Asia project at CSIS.
China’s “maritime silk road” also pushes its strategic advantage at sea
Others worry China will export its political model. Herbert Wiesner, general secretary of Germany’s PEN Center, says human rights are being “left in the ditches by the sides of the New Silk Road”.
WHERE DOES IT END?
Belt and Road is likely to continue, not least because these projects signal loyalty to Xi. The initiative has been enshrined in the Chinese communist party’s constitution, which also eliminated term limits, leaving Xi room to continue Belt and Road for as long as he wants.
It also gives disparate Chinese projects overseas the veneer of being part of a grand strategic plan, according to Winslow Robertson, a specialist in China-Africa relations. It is not a centralised initiative, so much as a brand, he says.
“Who determines what is a Belt and Road project or a Belt and Road country? Nobody is sure. Everything and nothing is Belt and Road.”
WHAT’S NEXT?
Not all of the most ambitious Belt and Road projects are about hard infrastructure. China plans to set up international courts, in Shenzhen and Xi’an, the former hub of the original Silk Road, to resolve commercial disputes related to Belt and Road.
“It’s a reminder BRI is about more than roads, railways, and other hard infrastructure,” said Jonathan Hillman, director of the Reconnecting Asia project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “It’s also a vehicle for China to write new rules, establish institutions that reflect Chinese interests, and reshape ‘soft’ infrastructure.”
Officials have said the courts, to be based on the judiciary, arbitration and mediation agencies of China’s Supreme People’s Court in Beijing, will follow international rules and will invite legal experts from outside China to participate.
Legal experts say the courts will likely be modelled on the Dubai International Financial Centre Courts and the International Commercial Court in Singapore, which has already struck an agreement with China to resolve Belt and Road-related disputes.
But critics of the independence of the country’s judicial system, which traditionally answers to China’s ruling communist party, worry the courts will favour Chinese parties over foreign firms.
RELATED: More from the Cities of the new Silk Road series
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Original Source: Date-stamped: 2018 JUL 30 | Author: Lily Kuo and Niko Kommenda | Article Title: What Is China'S Belt And Road Initiative? | Article Link: theguardian.com
References
| ↑1 | SEE URL: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/china-belt-and-road |
|---|---|
| ↑2 | SEE URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/warning-sounded-over-chinas-debtbook-diplomacy |
EDITORIAL: 2018 MAR 05 **WILL CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE PUSH VULNERABLE COUNTRIES INTO A DEBT CRISIS?** #4cminewswire, #4cminews, #China, #BRI, #DebtDistress, #Asia, #Europe, #Africa, #Hurley, #Morris, #Portelance, #4CM2018MAY05 READ HERE: https://4cminews.com/?p=52187 pic.twitter.com/7zqMOAPm8m
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As China’s Communist Party paves the way for President Xi Jinping’s indefinite leadership, the international community should expect the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—President Xi’s signature global infrastructure plan spanning Asia, Europe, and Africa—to be further cemented as China’s primary strategy of global engagement for years to come. In a new CGD paper, we assess the likelihood of debt problems in the 68 countries we identify as potential BRI borrowers.
THE BIG TAKEAWAY: BRI is unlikely to cause a systemic debt problem, yet the initiative will likely run into instances of debt problems among select participating countries—requiring better standards and improved debt practices from China.
Here’s what we found:
I: BRI creates the potential for significantly increased debt sustainability problems in at least eight countries. In BRI countries vulnerable to debt distress, we incorporate an identified BRI pipeline of project lending to estimate changes in a country’s public debt and concentration of debt with China as a creditor. Along these two dimensions, we identify eight countries of particular concern where China, as the dominant creditor, will be in the key position to address problems that may arise:
II: Looking at the entire range of countries in the initiative, the risk of debt distress is not widespread. The majority of BRI countries will likely avoid problems of debt distress due to BRI projects:
III: China should demonstrate its commitment to a responsible role on the international stage by adopting and advancing multilateral standards for debt sustainability and improving debt management practices. China’s track record managing debt distress has been problematic, and unlike the world’s other leading government creditors, China has not signed on to well-established rules of the road when it comes to avoiding unsustainable lending and addressing debt problems when they arise. Given the likelihood of debt problems in select cases, we make the following recommendations for how China and major BRI partners can better align with existing disciplines and standards:
Multilateralize the Belt and Road Initiative: Currently, institutions like the World Bank and Asian Development Bank are lending their reputations to the initiative while only seeking to obtain operational standards that will apply to a very narrow slice of BRI projects: those financed by the MDBs themselves. Before going further, the MDBs should press the Chinese government when it comes to the lending standards that will apply to any BRI project, no matter the lender.
Consider additional mechanisms to agree to lending standards: We suggest a post-Paris Club approach to collective creditor action, the implementation of a China-led G-20 sustainable financing agenda, and the use of China’s aid dollars to mitigate risks of default.
Original Source: Date-stamped: 2018 MAR 05 | Author: John Hurley, Scott Morris and Gailyn Portelance | Article Title: Will China's Belt and Road Initiative Push Vulnerable Countries into a Debt Crisis? | Article Link: cgdev.org
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China, Mongolia, Russia, Eurasian Countries, Central/West Asia, Pakistan, Indian subcontinent & Indochina.
THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI): development strategy aims to build connectivity and co-operation across six main economic corridors encompassing China and: Mongolia and Russia; Eurasian countries; Central and West Asia; Pakistan; other countries of the Indian subcontinent; and Indochina.
Asia needs USD 26 trillion in infrastructure investment to 2030 (Asian Development Bank, 2017), and China can certainly help to provide some of this.
Its investments, by building infrastructure, have positive impacts on countries involved. Mutual benefit is a feature of the BRI which will also help to develop markets for China’s products in the long term and to alleviate industrial excess capacity in the short term.
The BRI prioritises hardware (infrastructure) and funding first. This chapter explores and quantifies parts of the BRI strategy, the impact on other BRI-participating economies and some of the implications for OECD countries.
China faces internal financial constraints (see Chapter 1), which means that other countries and multilateral institutions (such as the World Bank) will need to be involved to meet the huge funding requirements.
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Original Source: Date-stamped: 2018 SEP 03 | Author: | Article Title: OECD: China'S Belt And Road Initiative In The Global Trade, Investment And Finance Landscape | Article Link: oecd.org
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Here’s what China’s plan to connect the world through infrastructure is like.
■ Map showing the projects subsumed under China’s Belt and Road Initiative as of December 2015. Reuters
□ The Belt and Road Initiative is one of China’s most ambitious projects.
□ It involves partnering with dozens of countries around the world through trade and infrastructure
…..projects, such as shipping lanes, railroads, and airports.
□ Supporters say it’s a way for China to invest in emerging markets and strengthen ties. Critics say
…..this is a way for China to use money to leverage political gains and increase its global power.
□ The US is now trying to create a viable alternative to the project by increasing investment in Asia.
….. Whether that will work, though, is not clear.
□ Learn more about the mega-project here.
ASIA, AFRICA, EUROPE, and OCEANIA
China is undertaking what it considers the largest project of the century — linking itself with more than 100 countries across Asia, Africa, Europe, and Oceania through trade.
The main focuses of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — also known as “One Belt, One Road” — are in infrastructure, transportation, and energy. The initiative was first announced in 2013, and is seen to be President Xi Jinping’s pet project.
Most BRI deals involve China lending vast amounts of money to other countries to build new railroads, shipping lanes, and other ventures in those countries. Investment from China alone in the project is estimated to be between $1 trillion and $8 trillion.
Proponents of the BRI say it’s a way for China to invest in emerging markets and strengthen its ties with them. However, the inner workings of the BRI are shrouded in secrecy, and some projects have already been abandoned due to host countries being unable to pay back their loans.
Critics also say that by creating these loans, China is engaging in debt-trap diplomacy — a strategy of extracting political concessions out of a country that owes it money.
The Belt and Road Initiative is a massive trade and infrastructure project that aims to link China to dozens of economies across Asia, Europe, Africa, and Oceania.
IT CONSISTS OF TWO PARTS: the “belt,” which recreates an old Silk Road land route, and the “road,” which is not actually a road, but a route through various oceans.
The Silk Road was an ancient land route across Europe and Asia that connected traders and travellers from regions like the China, Persia, and the Roman Empire.
Merchants used to transport silk and other commodities by camel or horse along those roads.
As of November 2019, 138 other countries are part of the project, according to China. They include New Zealand, Russia, Italy, and even Syria.
Source: Chinese government
MoU’s
SECRECY
Below Left: BRI partnerships typically come in the form of joint memoranda of understanding to support future projects. But these contracts are typically shrouded in secrecy, so it’s hard to understand how they work.
Below Right: China has invested between $1 trillion and $8 trillion in projects along the Belt and Road, mainly in infrastructure, transport, and energy.
Chinese President Xi Jinping votes at Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China.
These include gas pipelines in Pakistan; a port in Kazakhstan; and a rail route linking Yiwu, China, to the United Kingdom. Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies, South China Morning Post
Below Left: This 2017 photo shows a freight train directly running from Kouvola, Finland, to Xi’an, China. The trip takes 17 days, and is supposed to be faster than sea travel and cheaper than air.
Below Right: Here are workers building a natural gas pipeline linking China and Russia — one of the landmark BRI projects between the two countries.
Source: New China TV
Russian President Vladimir Putin — whom China’s President Xi calls his “best and bosom friend” — has propped up China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the past.
Below Left: China’s ambitions have even reached the Arctic, with plans to build a “Polar Silk Road” with infrastructure projects and shipping routes between the Arctic and Asia.
Below Right: Critics have warned that the building infrastructure projects under the BRI can cause environmental damage and displace people.
China first announced plans to build the Polar Silk Road in January 2018.
Smog in Beijing
China — which has led action on climate-change policies in recent years— has pledged to build environmentally sustainable BRI projects in the past, but has not given much detail on how it would do so, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said.
Activists and locals have spoken out about the potential environmental damage of various BRI projects.
In 2018, activists in Kenya managed to halt, via judicial order, the construction of a Chinese-financed coal plant because it would destroy the environment and human health.
Environmental groups in Indonesia have also warned that the building of a $1.6 billion dam on Sumatra island could wipe out a species of orangutan, the Financial Times reported.
A villager in Bom Or, Laos, told the Financial Times that Laotian and Chinese officials had visited more than 30 households asking them to make way for a building, without offering them financial compensation or other housing.
Below Left: Regardless, China is immensely proud of the BRI — it’s considered President Xi Jinping’s pet project. Experts say that you can just cite it to get government funding for projects.
Below Right: China is so keen to plug the project that state media outlets have made multiple music videos to promote it.
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a meeting at the United Nations European headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, January 18, 2017.
New China TV/YouTube | One video published by China Daily, ostensibly aimed at Gen-Z, shows children “from participating nations of The Belt and Road” singing these lyrics: “The world’s we’re dreaming of starts with you and me / The future’s coming now, the Belt and Road is how.” | Source: New China TV
“If you package something and say it’s Belt and Road-related, you have a much better chance of getting money from the Chinese government,” Stanley Rosen, a China expert and political-science professor at the University of Southern California told Business Insider earlier this year.
Similarly, Charles Parton, a former EU diplomat in China, told the Financial Times in 2017: “If you want to get projects or programmes approved, you say it’s OBOR [One Belt, One Road], so everything becomes OBOR.”
Below Left: In March 2019 China claimed one of its biggest victories for the BRI by signing a memorandum of understanding with Italy, the 8th-biggest economy in the world.
Below Right: The US isn’t a part of BRI, but recognizes and deems it a threat. In November 2019, President Donald Trump’s administration announced it will invest and trade more in Asia to counter China’s economic power in the region.
Xi and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte shake hands after signing trade agreements in Rome, Italy, on March 23, 2019.
Chinese and US delegations led by Xi and President Donald Trump at a working dinner after the G20 leaders summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in December 2018.
The two countries’ MOU, reportedly to support a joint infrastructure project, is non-binding — meaning there will be no legal ramifications for Italy or China if either withdraws from the agreement.
The exact details of what the memorandum aims to achieve are also unclear, further shrouding the BRI in secrecy.
The Trump administration in November launched the “Blue Dot Network,” a US-led public-private initiative to increase “financially sustainable infrastructure development” in Asia.
The organization wants to “promote market-driven, transparent, and financially sustainable infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world,” it said in a statement.
It appears to be directly targeting countries concerned about the BRI’s opacity.
Below Left: In 2016, China established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, an regional development bank to fund infrastructure — like an Asian version of the IMF. The UK, Germany, and France all joined despite the Obama administration warning its allies not to.
Below Right: Though China typically stays out of other countries’ politics, the BRI has given it reasons to get involved in some of them. When Turkey invaded northeastern Syria — a BRI partner nation — in October, China told Turkey to stop (and was ignored).
US President Barack Obama was not pleased when US allies all joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank despite his discouraging them from it. Source: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Business Insider
Children sit by their damaged home in Barisha, Syria, following a US raid on ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in late October 2019. Source: Chinese government, South China Morning Post
Below Left: The project has also amplified feuds between other countries. India is suspicious of the BRI because of Beijing’s plans to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Below Right: China’s backing of Pakistan-based infrastructure projects has also appeared to encourage it to support Beijing in other political issues. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has routinely ignored criticism of China’s abuse against its Muslim minority.
Pakistan’s Gwadar port, which is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, in October 2017. Drazen Jorgic/Reuters
Imran Khan at his house in the Bani Gala hills, on the outskirts of Islamabad, Pakistan July 29, 2017. Caren Firouz/Reuters
CHINA-INDIA-PAKISTAN:
Projects along the CPEC include a coal-fired power plant, schools, and solar energy facilities, according to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency.
Tensions between India and Pakistan, meanwhile, reached a height this year when India claimed the disputed region of Kashmir as its own federally-administered territory.
Khan has repeatedly claimed not to know anything about China’s oppression of the Uighurs, a mostly-Muslim ethnic minority in its west.
China-Pakistan: Critics told Business Insider earlier this year that through the BRI, China had bought Pakistan’s silence.
It’s an example of what critics call Chinese “debt-trap diplomacy” — the strategy of extracting political concessions from a country that owes money. Another example of this can be seen in BRI countries shunning Taiwan.
Below Left: Taiwan
Below Right: Cambodia
A woman in front of Taiwan’s flag.
Construction for an airport in Botum Sakor, Cambodia, developed by China’s Union Development Group, in May 2018.
TAIWAN: has been self-governing for decades, but Beijing continues to call it a Chinese territory. Tensions between the pair have ramped up in recent years because the island nation’s incumbent president is particularly critical of China.
A handful of countries, which are also BRI partners, have formally severed ties with Taiwan in recent months, leaving the island nation with just 15 allies left globally — all of whom are relatively impotent on the world stage.
Taiwan’s allies include the Pacific island nations of Nauru and Tuvalu, and Eswatini, a southern African nation of 1.4 million people
Many of those countries have also restored or improved ties to China after cutting off Taiwan.
PACIFIC: Not everyone agrees with that characterization, though. An Australian think tank found that China’s actions in the Pacific do not, at this point, show any sort of debt-trap diplomacy.
“The evidence suggests China has not been engaged in problematic debt practices in the Pacific as to justify accusations of debt trap diplomacy, at least not to date,” the Lowy Institute said in October 2019, according to The Guardian.
The think tank did warn, however, that the “sheer scale of Chinese lending and the lack of strong institutional mechanisms to protect the debt sustainability of borrowing” could still bring risks for the borrowing nations.
Below Left: One thing is clear: China has poured a lot of money and effort into the BRI, and is unlikely to stop. The US — the only world power strong enough to take on China — will have to step up if it wants to be taken as a serious alternative in Asia.
Below Right: This map shows a trillion-dollar reason why China is oppressing more than a million Muslims (The Uighurs, a mostly-Muslim ethnic minority in Xinjiang, western China, are living in one of the most heavily-policed and oppressive states in the world. This map helps explain why.)
Trump and Xi Jinping in Osaka, Japan, in June 2019.
BI Graphics: A map showing some Belt and Road Initiative land routes that run through China’s Xinjiang. businessinsider.com.au
Original Source: Date-stamped: 2019 NOV 12 | Time-stamped: 2:42 AM | Author: Alexandra Ma | Article Title: The US is Scrambling To Invest More in Asia To Counter China's 'Belt And Road' Mega-Project. | Article Link: businessinsider.com
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